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Effects of Weather and Climate on Extreme Rainfall Return Values in Southeast Texas

Presented by John Nielsen-Gammon, Bio 

The recent large number of extreme precipitation events in Southeast Texas has contributed to extreme rainfall design values in the area that far exceed those of comparable locations.  When adjusted for differences in length of rainfall records and allowing for a broader geographical sample, return values are smaller by 1% to 18%, depending on the return period.  Meanwhile, a robust upward trend in extreme precipitation is present across the southern and southeastern United States, which multiple lines of evidence indicate is being driven by climate change.  Again, the local trend is very large due to recent events, but the larger-scale climate-driven trend appears to be 11%-15% over the past 60 years.  Because of these two competing factors, the NOAA Atlas 14 return values for 2-year return periods are likely to be underestimates going forward, while the values for 100-year return periods are likely to be overestimates until the middle of the 21st century.